Tensions between Iran and the United States escalated further as Tehran warned it would carry out “long and painful” retaliatory strikes if Washington resumes attacks. This threat complicates U.S. efforts to form an international coalition to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Two months after the conflict began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, the strait remains closed, cutting off roughly 20% of global oil and gas supplies. The disruption has driven energy prices sharply higher and increased fears of a global economic slowdown.
Although a ceasefire has been in place since April 8, negotiations have stalled. Iran continues to block the waterway in response to a U.S. naval blockade targeting its oil exports, a key source of revenue.
Donald Trump is expected to review new plans for additional military strikes aimed at pressuring Iran over its nuclear program. Reports of possible action pushed oil prices up significantly, with Brent crude briefly exceeding $126 per barrel before easing.
Iranian officials warned that even limited U.S. strikes would trigger widespread retaliation against American military assets in the region, including bases and naval vessels.
Since the conflict began in late February, oil prices have roughly doubled, fueling inflation worldwide. Iran has also launched drone and missile attacks on Israeli and U.S.-linked targets across the Gulf.
Meanwhile, Amazon reported damage to its cloud infrastructure in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, with recovery expected to take months, highlighting the broader economic impact of the conflict.
Tehran has also threatened unprecedented military action if U.S. blockades continue, raising concerns about further disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.
One U.S. proposal involves taking control of parts of the strait to restore commercial shipping, potentially requiring ground forces. At the same time, Washington is seeking to build a post-conflict maritime coalition, known as the Maritime Freedom Construct, to secure shipping routes.
European countries such as France and United Kingdom have discussed participating but say they would only do so after hostilities end.
Iran’s leadership signaled it intends to maintain influence over the strait, framing control of the waterway as a matter of national security.
Diplomatic efforts continue, with Pakistan acting as a mediator. However, disagreements remain—particularly over Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has proposed postponing nuclear discussions until the conflict ends, a condition Washington rejects.
Other global leaders have also stepped in. Japan has engaged Iran to ensure safe passage for vessels, while Germany has urged Tehran to move negotiations forward more quickly.
The U.S. is also preparing for multiple scenarios, including prolonged conflict or a unilateral declaration of victory, while working with oil companies to reduce the impact of ongoing supply disruptions.
Overall, the situation remains tense, with both military escalation and diplomatic resolution still possible.
